UPDATE, with predictions revealed!
Here’s what I wrote to myself in an email dated January 31 (Sunday night) at 5:41 p.m. I was right about Iowa, if only by a hair in the Democratic caucus:
Cruz wins Iowa Caucus but it doesn’t matter in the long run; he doesn’t get the nomination.
Trump comes in #2 in Iowa, wins NH. No prediction as to whether he will win the nomination.
Clinton wins Iowa, loses NH, wins SC and Super Tuesday and gets the nomination.
______________________
That crazy state that’s now smaller, population-wise, than Colorado is having its outsized say in the 2016 presidential campaign again. Until the Democrats decide to have their first primary–not a fundamentally anti-democratic (small-d) caucus–in a state that reflects their demographics, we can enjoy never seeing eye-to-eye with Ioway.
So, what the heck? You’re welcome. I’ve emailed my predictions to myself so I have a time- and date-stamped record of my hopes and delusions for tonight’s dog-and-pony show.
Historiann 
Yeah, the whole caucus thing is premised to some degree on a quirky idea that political choice and decision-making are fundamentally of a higher quality for having a performative character, or at least a language-articulated social dimension, which is charmingly unlikely to be true. This obviously advantages people at least in some ways whose socialization from childhood on has included group dynamics classes, dramaturgics, and other creative cultural exercises that are not all that widely distributed even in a modernized democratic society. (How this last sentence overlays with the hard-core conservatism and localism on the Republican side I’m not prepared to say. This may actually hurt people like Trump, for bringing “new” voters to the “polls”). If there was ever a proposal to use such methods in general elections, I’m pretty sure that the courts would reject it on the finding of various prohibited adverse effects on the political rights of different populations. But I guess the currently standing rule with party organizations is that they are free to use their own judgments and preferences. You really shouldn’t have to “perform” your ballot in somebody’s living room, or even a fire station, while trying not to break something.
I always think of Iowa as a pretty liberal state, having confined my “fieldwork” there to the most idiosyncratic and unrepresentative of its precincts.
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Perhaps I don’t have all the facts, but the nature of the Democratic caucus in Iowa seems to present challenges to certain demographics that would lower voter turnout. Because it happens at a particular time (i.e. in the evening) and requires an extended presence (instead of just casting your vote and walking away) those with non-traditional employment or single parents would have a much more difficult time attending. As committed as I am to the democratic process, I’m not sure I would shell out $30 for a sitter to watch my kids so I can go caucus. Or lose 3 hours of work.
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Nice Work with your predictions Historiann! Do you care to reveal your methodology?
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I guessed! Sheer luck. But also, I’m always skeptical of those dumbass arguments about how “this time it’s different.” Organization and ground game still count for a lot (Clinton and Cruz) as do older vs. younger voters (Clinton.)
I well remember the ancient history of 2004, when Howard Dean was anointed the Dem front-runner on the strength of public polls rather than actual caucus or primary results.
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I couldn’t believe it when they cut from an already long-winded Cruz speech to Hillary’s “sigh of relief” clever non-claim of the contest and then cut back and Cruz was not only not finished, but he was just getting warmed up. I thought all of the candidate speeches were fairly awful, with Clinton’s redeemed by what was underlying it. They had to have known more than the networks did for her to have “come downstairs” with 5% of the vote still outstanding. I was still sweating bullets after that, though.
At least Trump didn’t do a reprise of the legendary “Dean Scream,” which I was half expecting.
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HAhaha! I thought Clinton’s move was brilliant: declare victory first, and pull the rug out from Cruz. That was something a man would do (like George W. Bush, for example), for which he would be congratulated & not criticized. Perception is reality in politics. It showed strength and confidence, which she’ll need because NH will be a drubbing!
Nevada and South Carolina are friendlier turf for her to compete on. She won Nevada in 2008, as I recall. We’ll see what happens when we get more Latin@s and African Americans voting.
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When the word gets out that the tempestuous runnagadoe, Sanders Allen, lamming it northbound from Connecticut, was the person who “stole” the Green Mountains from their proper owners in the White Mountains, Bernie’s numbers could tank faster than a three-dip Cherries Garcia cone on a hot day in Bellows Falls.
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